16 February 2011

Demographic Transition: Concepts and Relevance to Commonwealth Countries

K. Srinivasan

This is an extract from the paper presented at the 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians held in New Delhi during 7-9 February 2011.* }


The Commonwealth Countries (CWC) is an intergovernmental group of 54 countries that were earlier colonies of Great Britain, and choosing to remain, even after their political independence, as an association of independent nations including the United Kingdom, working for their common welfare. They are unique in the sense that all of them (excepting the colonizer, the United Kingdom) were colonized for many decades, if not for centuries, and after independence have set up strong national governments for the development of their populations. These 54 countries include 18 in Africa, 12 in Asia, 12 in America, 10 in Oceania and 2 in Europe. According to the World Population Prospects: the 2008 Revision of the United Nations, in 2010, the CWC is home to a population of 2.162 billion within a land area of 27 million sq.kms, while the total population of the world is placed at 6,908 billion in 135 million sq.kms. The average population density in the CWC whole was 125 persons per sq km, more than three times the density in the rest of the world, the global density being 48 persons per sq km. The commonwealth countries, as a whole, are a densely populated group.

The CWC is characterized by extreme diversities in the various demographic, economic and health parameters of the population living in different countries across the globe with India with a population of 1.214 billion at one end and the island of Tuvalu in Oceania with a population of 10,000 at the other end. ( Note: India’s population estimates and projections by the United Nations have been consistently overestimated compared to the Indian censuses and official projections by the Government of India) The total population of CWC in 2010 is estimated at 2162.389 million. There are four countries in CWC with population of over 100 million including India 1214 million; Pakistan 185 million; Bangladesh 164 million; and Nigeria with 158 million: there are 28 countries in the population range 1 to 100 million and the remaining 22 countries are mostly island countries with very small population in Oceania with a population less than a million. Thus India’s population is more than half the population of CWC and the demographic trends in the four large countries of the CWC are likely to determine the demography of CWC as a whole.

There are 15 countries (see table below) below replacement level Total Fertility Rate** (replacement level TFR is 2.1), with a total population of 132 million(or 6% of the total population of CWC for which TFR data were available), 12 countries with a total population of 1488 million with TFR between 2.2 and 3.5 ( 69% of the population), 10 countries with TFR between 3.5 and 5 with a total population of 279 million (13% of the population)and 8 countries with a total population of 262 million with a TFR greater than 5 (12% of the population).There are 9 countries with a total population of 1 million for which estimates of TFR values for 2005-10 period are not available.

The United Nations has classified the countries of the world ad “More Developed Countries” (MDC) and “Less Developed Countries” (LDC) for purposes of demographic and socio economic analysis and following this definition there are six developed countries in CWC, Australia, Canada, Cyprus, Malta, New Zealand and United Kingdom and the remaining 48 countries are LDCs and they are classified further into three groups : large countries with over 100 million population ( 4 countries )( LDCL); medium size countries ( 1 to 100 million population) with 24 countries (LDCM), and small countries with less than 1 million population with 20 countries (LDCS).

Though I have compiled time- series data available on various indicators for each of the countries from 1990 to 2030 from the UN Demographic Year Books, for the sake of brevity and drawing of lessons on the nature of demographic transition among countries we selected six countries, viz. Australia from the MDC group, India and Pakistan from the LDCL group, Botswana and Ghana from the LDCM group and Guyana from the LDCS group.

The 54 countries of the commonwealth have an estimated population of 2162 million in 2010 and include only six developed countries and Singapore and Malaysia that can also be included in the more developed category on the basis of their “Human Development Index” and these eight countries together have only 7.5% of the population of the CWC, and the remaining 46 less developed countries account for 92.5 % of the population. The demographic characteristics of India that accounts for 56% of the population of CWC (population of 1214 million) tend to determine the overall demographic characteristics of the CWC. As a whole the region is poor, poorer than the populations of LDCs outside the commonwealth. The silver lining is that they are all rapidly controlling their mortality and fertility rates during the past four decades. During 2005-10, across all the countries the average values were 25 for CBR, 3.2 for TFR, 40 for IMR, 65 years for expectation of life at birth and 0.59 for HDI. The mortality and fertility rates of the 48 less developed countries in the CWC are declining quite rapidly largely due to the efforts of the national governments through their various national developmental programmes especially their public health and family planning programmes.

There is no country in the first or the pre-transition stage of demographic transition, implying that in all the countries mortality rates have commenced their steady downward trend, though in Botswana and South Africa , in the eighties and ‘nineties there was an increase in death rates because of higher mortality due to HIV/ AIDs related diseases but the declining trend has since been restored. Fifteen countries with a total population of 132 million are in the fourth stage ( TFR <2.1), 12 countries with 1488 million ( that includes India) are in the final phases of the third stage ( TFR 2.3 to 3.5) and only eight countries with a total population of 262 million have TFR over 5 during 2005-10.

What was achieved over more than a century in the developed world in terms of increase in longevity and reductions in fertility have been achieved in many countries of the region within a span of three decades. For example within India in 2008 , 9 states with a total population of 445 million or 43% of the population of the country have already achieved replacement or low levels of fertility ( TFR<2.1) and this is almost four times the population of the six developed countries of CWC . The gap in the various demographic parameters between the more and less developed countries of the region is rapidly disappearing and by 2030 the differentials in TFR and growth rates are expected to be insignificant.

The differentials in the life expectancy and Human Development Index ( HDI) seem to persist because of large differences in per capita incomes even after adjusting for price differentials across countries. The differentials in old age mortality rates and educational attainments especially for females between the developed and developing countries seem also to persist.

It has to be recognized that development is a relative term. Compared to the progress made in the less developed countries outside the commonwealth, the 46 less developed countries of CWC ( excluding the six developed countries and Singapore and Malaysia) are in general economically poorer and the pace of progress is slower, especially in HDI. The remarkably better progress made in the “less developed countries” outside the commonwealth is mostly due to the outstanding progress made by China with 1.4 billion people in demographic transition and in the “human development index’. The total population in the less developed region in the world as a whole works out to 82%, compared to 94 % in the commonwealth group. Part of this relatively lower development can be attributed to the long years or decades of colonization and exploitation that they have suffered under the colonial rule; and partly, it can also be attributed to the parliamentary form of governance that they have inherited from Great Britain.

In the CWC, the countries as Sri Lanka, Singapore and others that have adopted the Presidential form of governance have recorded greater progress in improving expectations of life and the Human Development. Similarly outside the Commonwealth, Brazil, China, Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines that have adopted other systems of governance have achieved greater progress in reductions of mortality and increase in HDI values.

It is a valid and useful research question for the political scientists and demographers to examine based on a meta-analysis of the progress of the different countries in demographic transition and human development in relation to the forms of governance that they have adopted whether the political system and forms of governance have in any way contributed to the differentials in the pace of social and economic development of the countries.. The pace of demographic transition and HDI in the coming decades is likely to be more influenced by the public policies and programmes in the fields of education, health and social security adopted by the governments of these countries than on the economic growth per se.

Scope of future Research: some issues worth exploring

  • All the less developed countries of the world are developing during the past four decades but it has to be recognized that development is a relative term. Compared to the progress made in the less developed countries outside the system of parliamentary democracy, 46 of them in the commonwealth, the progress achieved by the countries with other forms of governance in economic growth and human development index (HDI) seems to be faster, especially in HDI. The remarkably better progress made in the “less developed countries” outside parliamentary democracy is mostly due to the outstanding progress made by China with 1.4 billion people in demographic transition and in the “human development index.’

  • The total population in the less developed region in the world as a whole works out to 82%, compared to 94 % in the commonwealth group which have largely adopted the parliamentary form of democracy Part of this relatively slower development can be attributed to the long years or decades of colonization and exploitation that they have suffered under the colonial rule; and partly, it can also be attributed to the parliamentary form of governance that they have inherited from Great Britain. In the Commonwealth the countries as Sri Lanka, Singapore and others that have adopted the Presidential form of governance have recorded greater progress in improving expectations of life and the Human Development. Similarly outside the Commonwealth, Brazil, China, Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines that have adopted other systems of governance have achieved greater progress in reductions of mortality and increase in HDI values. It is a valid and useful research question for the political scientists and demographers to examine based on a meta-analysis of the progress of the different countries in demographic transition and human development in relation to the forms of governance that they have adopted whether the political system and forms of governance have in any way contributed to the differentials in the pace of social and economic development of the countries.. The pace of demographic transition and HDI in the coming decades is likely to be more influenced by the public policies and programmes in the fields of education, health and social security adopted by the governments of these countries than on the economic growth per se.
In the Commonwealth, countries as Sri Lanka, Singapore and others that have adopted the Presidential form of governance have recorded greater progress in improving expectations of life and the Human Development. Similarly outside the Commonwealth, Brazil, China, Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines that have adopted other systems of governance have achieved greater progress in reductions of mortality and increase in HDI values.

It is a valid and useful research question for the political scientists and demographers to examine based on a meta-analysis of the progress of the different countries in demographic transition and human development in relation to the forms of governance that they have adopted whether the political system and forms of governance have in any way contributed to the differentials in the pace of social and economic development of the countries.. The pace of demographic transition and HDI in the coming decades is likely to be more influenced by the public policies and programmes in the fields of education, health and social security adopted by the governments of these countries than on the economic growth per se.
  • There are essentially four major forms of governance:

  1. Marxist/Communist System (MCS);
  2. Dictatorship without popular electoral base usually from the military ranks (MDS);
  3. Democratically elected system with Presidential form of democracy (DPS);
  4. Parliamentary democratic system (PDS).

The present study tentatively indicates that in the earlier stages of development the second and third one, Marxist system or the Presidential form of democratic governance, may lead to faster improvements in human development, especially on health and education and better income distributions.

This issue however deserves debate. In the last category of governance system above, the developments may be slower but it is claimed that there will be stability. I do not know as what type of stability is meant; some sections of the poor may be poor on a sustained basis.


To conclude: A point raised

Based on observing the trends in the various demographic indicators and human development indices for India and other countries, one cannot but wonder whether the adoption of the Parliamentary system of governance by many former colonies of England, especially a large country such as India, was a wise decision. Perhaps, the Presidential system of governance might be better suited for a large democratic country like India in the long run .




{*The detailed tables and charts on the demographic indicators and HDI for the commonwealth countries are omitted here, to keep it simple. Please contact the blog author in Comments for these details and other questions on the paper.}

** Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she experiences the current fertility pattern throughout her reproductive span (15 to 49 years).

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